Where do we go from here?

Everybody wants to know what the future holds, but forecasting it is tricky. Who would’ve predicted that in 2011, the U.S. would kill Osama Bin Laden, an earthquake would rattle the East Coast or revolution would sweep the Middle East?

The major global events are important, but the pressing question for most Americans is: When is the economy going to get back on its feet? The question has been on the front burner since the economy started to flounder in 2008. There are hopeful signs that things may be turning around in the Hickory area, but there are other signs that we may be in for another tough year.

The new construction going on at the corner of Lenoir-Rhyne Boulevard and Ninth Avenue, SE, is a prime example.

New buildings and new construction bring jobs to the area — but the store being built is a Dollar General discount store — a symbol of the continuing need for thrift in a wobbly economy.

There are other construction projects going on in the area, but as a whole, construction in Catawba County was down this year as compared with last year. There were 13 percent fewer residential building permits issued this year. The total number of building permits issued was 8 percent lower than it was last year.

The numbers may be grim, but you don’t have to go far to find someone with reason to believe that things will be better in 2012 than they were in 2011.

Reasons for hope

Scott Millar is the president of the Catawba County Economic Development Corporation. It’s his job to bring new business and industry to Catawba County. He’s also tasked with working with existing businesses to make sure they grow, prosper and continue to provide jobs for area residents.

Millar says 2011 wasn’t that bad and he’s hopeful about 2012.

“There were no sizable manufacturing layoffs in 2011. You’d have to go back to 2008 and 2009 to get to the point where we had these really, really heartbreaking layoffs,” Millar said. “Layoffs are surprisingly less than most people would think.”

He also said he’s working on bringing some new companies to the area early in the coming year.

“We’ve got some significant manufacturing opportunities in the works, but we’re still fighting multiple states on these and if any of them were to hit that would be a great way to start 2012,” Millar said. “Our recent breakthroughs have come in small to medium projects that bring in 10 to 100 manufacturing jobs.”

There was good news in the furniture industry last year.

“We had sort of a renaissance in furniture with Fairmont Designs hiring 400 people and the Lee Industries consolidations,” Millar said. “Those are good signs.”

Google and Apple are here and Millar’s working to bring more tech jobs to the area.

“We’ve worked hard on tech — the opportunities are still out there,” Millar said. “The IT and data center world is taking a little breather right now. We’re hoping for a tech announcement in early January, but we’re fighting with another area over that.”

Another way to stimulate the local economy is to attract people who will eat, shop and stay overnight in the Hickory area.

That’s where Bebe Leitch, president of the Hickory Metro Convention and Visitors Bureau, comes in.

“Our biggest focus is hotel occupancy — we want to bring in groups that will come here and stay for a few days,” she said.

Leitch and her staff have worked to estimate the amount of financial boost to the local economy generated by a single overnight visitor attending an event at the convention center.

The number they’ve arrived at is $125 — they estimate that an overnight visitor will pay roughly $125 for their hotel, food and incidental purchases — though the actual number may be quite a bit higher.

Interviews with attendees at this year’s Hog Rally revealed that the average attendee spent about $245 during their stay. For the narrow gauge railroad conventioneers, it was closer to $255.

Sometimes the number is much higher. The convention center hosts five gun shows per year. Almost 5,200 people attended the gun show during Thanksgiving weekend.

“People told us they were planning to spend $1,500 to $2,000 at the show,” Leitch said.

Because the Hickory Metro Convention and Visitors Bureau is planning to use the 1 percent hike in Hickory’s occupancy tax to pay for a parking deck — they keep a close eye on the occupancy rates in the city.

“We’ve had a 5 percent increase in occupancy from 2010 to 2011,” Leitch said.

The occupancy tax collected in fiscal year 2010-11 was $1,227,354. In 2009-10, the city collected $1,067,129 in occupancy taxes.

In 2010, there were 106 events at the convention center, with an average of 448 people attending each event. In 2011, there were 134 events with an average of 600 attendees at each.

Right now, there are 61 events booked for 2012 and additional events whose promoters have yet to sign their contracts to finalize their reservations.

“Many state associations have booked for next year already — that’s our niche,” Leitch said. “We’re also going to have a big car show in January. It really feels like things are getting a little bit better.”

The safety net

Even though things may be beginning to improve, people are still getting laid off and let go — some after more than 30 years with the same company.

When that happens, Ronnie Grantham, manager of the Department of Commerce division of Employment Security of Catawba County, steps in to lend her support.

“Job seekers come here for resources, retraining, filing for unemployment benefits and training in job-seeking skills,” Grantham said.

Catawba County’s unemployment rate was 11.6 percent in October — the most recent month statistics are available.

“That has been pretty stable for the last few months,” Grantham said. “We still have people coming in seeking services — there hasn’t been a big change in the numbers. We’re still here and we still provide services to customers in an effort to get them employed again.”

The highest unemployment in the state is found in Scotland County, with 16.6 percent. The lowest rate is found in Currituck County, with 5.4 percent unemployment.

“We do have employers hiring in the area and that’s always good,” Grantham said. “Of course around the Christmas season, it always picks up a little bit. We’ve seen a 5 to 10 percent increase in job listings in the past few months.”

She said most of the area companies posting jobs are only listing 15 to 20 open positions. Listings come from a variety of sources: retail, health care, manufacturing and clerical.

The end of the world as we know it

You don’t have to go far to find someone who can tell you what some say awaits us on Dec. 21, 2012.

That’s when the Myan calendar ends. Some say it means apocalyptic doom, others scoff, but watch the Hollywood movie version to see how John Cusack would handle the situation.

One person who’s seen an increase in the numbers of people preparing for the worst is Phil Winters, owner of insta-cash Pawn & Jewelry Inc. on Highland Avenue.

“We’ve seen an increase in silver sales — coins and bullion,” Winters said. “People are also interested in things that work without electricity or batteries, like manual typewriters.”

Some people come into his store clutching lists of survival items they’re looking for. They like to pay in cash and aren’t eager to share their names or anything about themselves. The majority seem to be concerned with political instability, though there is a sizable minority who are concerned about natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina.

He caught a glimpse of one person’s list and saw that she was looking to stockpile 100 cases of water and 25 full gas cans.

“She didn’t want me to see her list,” Winters said. “But she was short, so I could see it.”

Jan Ray opened Mattie’s Pantry Bulk Food and Specialty shop on Springs Road in May. Since then, she’s encountered four or five people who came to her to stockpile food — just in case.

“Back when we had the Depression, it was instilled in that generation and their children listened to their parents’ stories and that’s who I’ve seen stocking up,” she said.

Like Winters, Ray’s disaster-preparedness customers appear focused on political instability.

“Around the time it looked like the government was going to shut down in September when Congress was fighting over whether to raise the debt ceiling, I saw people buying more,” she said.

What do the survivalists want from Mattie’s Pantry? Fifty-pound sacks of rice and dry grains.

When it comes to weapons, the people Winters sees coming into his shop are looking for shotguns and military-grade rifles. Both types of weapons can be used for self-defense and hunting.

Though he has seen an increase in customers interested in survivalism, he said they’re still the minority.

“Overall, I’d say 90 percent of the people really have no concern about this type of thing,” he said.

Winters chose not to make any predictions about what the coming year would bring.

“Even the Bible says no man knows the hour,” he said.